REGIONAL DISCUSSIONS:

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Re: REGIONAL DISCUSSIONS:

Post  Olekoima on Tue Mar 27 2012, 10:20

Analyst wrote:[quote="countersniper

You great lot....One day i will admit aloud that SIN is me.....
Kenya is excited about the oil but am not sure they should....they should be worried its such a great resource full of incredible curse..

Hey guys, why all this fuss about SIN anyway. I find their content accurate to some extent. Show me a post from them that you can entirely dispute.

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Re: REGIONAL DISCUSSIONS:

Post  mJESHI mMOJA on Tue Mar 27 2012, 11:33

@ rwigi & mekatilili tuhesimiane such kind of nonsense I will not take .ok? you fellows are less the 60post old in the forum, would appreciate if you would revise how the site came to be, which I believe is what attracted you in the first place..
mekatilili wrote:
mJESHI mMOJA wrote: Military air space gentlemen ..Geo-politic affairs should be directed to the current affairs page..tafadhalini
The vibrancy of this page and freedom to discuss all issues affecting our economy here is part of the reason this thread remains the most interesting and and the forum continues to grow. I think we should be free to discuss these issues here as they impact our military and defense organization. Any attempt to curtail that is a put off.


rwigi wrote:
mJESHI mMOJA wrote: Military air space gentlemen ..Geo-politic affairs should be directed to the current affairs page..tafadhalini


Not very easy to differentiate the two. In my eyes the oil find and the Ke military are joined in the hip. I posted the image of the Ngamia site there because I found it after I had already posted the earlier one on the news about oil being found in Turkana. I believe if they were together it would not have looked misplaced.

On the other hand, I believe self regulation is the best. We all know(been here for a few months) that this is Ke Mil page/site and so I do my best to keep it that. Feeling as if someone is on the look out to point out where you have gone wrong is counterproductive.

Reminds me of high school....

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Re: REGIONAL DISCUSSIONS:

Post  Spartan on Tue Mar 27 2012, 11:41

The Blue wrote:
livefire wrote:For anyone with know how on the oil manenos. how does an oil well in excess of 20m i.e (65ft) in depth translate in possible oil reserves in barrels assuming mapping gives a positive find. You can case ua explanation on any other oil wells found else where. #pardon me it aint militaristic.
EAC has always vowed to stand by SS, how will these play out? @Spartan, was the alleged military mobilisation in Uganda motivated by this unfolding events in the 'sudans'? Ofcourse i dont expect an affirmative answer.

You can have oil wells that are quite shallow. An example is the canadian oil sands that are at the surface or slightly sub-surface. For the Ngamia 1 well, there was 20M of oil pay at depths beyond 880M. this alone is not enough to map out the extents of the field. However, the same blok 10BB has been explored before by Shell (Loperot-1 well was drilled in the southern portion of the block in the Lodwar South sub-basin. The well found a total of 13 m net pay in thin, shallow landstone layers of the Auwerwer formation)and the well they drilled some time ago (Loperot-1)hit oil of 29API density. this plus seismic surveys already cariied out on the block may give an indication of size of reserve.

Welcome aboard, The Blue. I almost laughed on reading that Energy minister Kiraitu Murungi said that Tullow told him the reserves are bigger than Uganda's. They wouldn't know at this point having sunk just one well. But that's not to say that Kenya can't discover bigger reserves than those in Uganda, it takes time for the company to know. They have to drill at different locations and find out whether the fields are interconnected, then using the figures of the meters of oil pay they can estimate the volumes. Having established the reserve volumes, they test the flow rate and then tell you how much is recoverable (improved technology is now taking care of this). But 20 meters of oil pay is a very good indicator of commercial quantities.

@countersniper, the refinery to cover Uganda's needs is a done deal. In fact, it was a condition laid down for the companies and they have accepted it. Like I said, no country wants to depend on another for such an important resource. Besides, Uganda's refinery can still serve East DRC, Rwanda and Burundi.

@Vitruvian, welcome back bro

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Re: REGIONAL DISCUSSIONS:

Post  Olekoima on Tue Mar 27 2012, 11:49

Spartan wrote:
The Blue wrote:
livefire wrote:For anyone with know how on the oil manenos. how does an oil well in excess of 20m i.e (65ft) in depth translate in possible oil reserves in barrels assuming mapping gives a positive find. You can case ua explanation on any other oil wells found else where. #pardon me it aint militaristic.
EAC has always vowed to stand by SS, how will these play out? @Spartan, was the alleged military mobilisation in Uganda motivated by this unfolding events in the 'sudans'? Ofcourse i dont expect an affirmative answer.

You can have oil wells that are quite shallow. An example is the canadian oil sands that are at the surface or slightly sub-surface. For the Ngamia 1 well, there was 20M of oil pay at depths beyond 880M. this alone is not enough to map out the extents of the field. However, the same blok 10BB has been explored before by Shell (Loperot-1 well was drilled in the southern portion of the block in the Lodwar South sub-basin. The well found a total of 13 m net pay in thin, shallow landstone layers of the Auwerwer formation)and the well they drilled some time ago (Loperot-1)hit oil of 29API density. this plus seismic surveys already cariied out on the block may give an indication of size of reserve.

Welcome aboard, The Blue. I almost laughed on reading that Energy minister Kiraitu Murungi said that Tullow told him the reserves are bigger than Uganda's. They wouldn't know at this point having sunk just one well. But that's not to say that Kenya can't discover bigger reserves than those in Uganda, it takes time for the company to know. They have to drill at different locations and find out whether the fields are interconnected, then using the figures of the meters of oil pay they can estimate the volumes. Having established the reserve volumes, they test the flow rate and then tell you how much is recoverable (improved technology is now taking care of this). But 20 meters of oil pay is a very good indicator of commercial quantities.

@countersniper, the refinery to cover Uganda's needs is a done deal. In fact, it was a condition laid down for the companies and they have accepted it. Like I said, no country wants to depend on another for such an important resource. Besides, Uganda's refinery can still serve East DRC, Rwanda and Burundi.

@Vitruvian, welcome back bro

You have to give it to him. I think the minister was kinda over excited.Laughing Laughing Laughing

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Re: REGIONAL DISCUSSIONS:

Post  Olekoima on Tue Mar 27 2012, 12:05

Sorry folks for sneaking this in, but i felt i needed to share it with you. Good lessons for Kenya, Uganda and indeed EAC as a whole. Read on:-

http://www.ratio-magazine.com/201203274077/News-Analysis/Kenya-Oil-Find-Good-News.html

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Re: REGIONAL DISCUSSIONS:

Post  Analyst on Tue Mar 27 2012, 12:21

Olekoima wrote:Sorry folks for sneaking this in, but i felt i needed to share it with you. Good lessons for Kenya, Uganda and indeed EAC as a whole. Read on:-

http://www.ratio-magazine.com/201203274077/News-Analysis/Kenya-Oil-Find-Good-News.html

Quite true though and collaborates SIN assessment of the same

Economically and Militarily, Kenya has more foothold and might be geared to a final push to secure muscle.
If these economic and military gains continue in good-speed Kenya will take the path of America to become a powerful force economically and militarily.

Defense requirements will become dire as our economy demands more of it. Our neighbors will face economic inferiority owing to the fact that, we have great infrastructure and basic requirements to attract direct foreign investments.

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Re: REGIONAL DISCUSSIONS:

Post  Guest on Tue Mar 27 2012, 14:24

mJESHI mMOJA wrote:@ rwigi & mekatilili tuhesimiane such kind of nonsense I will not take .ok? you fellows are less the 60post old in the forum, would appreciate if you would revise how the site came to be, which I believe is what attracted you in the first place..
mekatilili wrote:
mJESHI mMOJA wrote: Military air space gentlemen ..Geo-politic affairs should be directed to the current affairs page..tafadhalini
The vibrancy of this page and freedom to discuss all issues affecting our economy here is part of the reason this thread remains the most interesting and and the forum continues to grow. I think we should be free to discuss these issues here as they impact our military and defense organization. Any attempt to curtail that is a put off.


rwigi wrote:
mJESHI mMOJA wrote: Military air space gentlemen ..Geo-politic affairs should be directed to the current affairs page..tafadhalini


Not very easy to differentiate the two. In my eyes the oil find and the Ke military are joined in the hip. I posted the image of the Ngamia site there because I found it after I had already posted the earlier one on the news about oil being found in Turkana. I believe if they were together it would not have looked misplaced.

On the other hand, I believe self regulation is the best. We all know(been here for a few months) that this is Ke Mil page/site and so I do my best to keep it that. Feeling as if someone is on the look out to point out where you have gone wrong is counterproductive.

Reminds me of high school....

I am not ready for this back and forth thing.

Someone may have ZERO posts and have a lot between their ears. How many people just read this site and never post? If you doubt that the 'small post I posted about Ngamia Oil Find' was correctly placed look at the kind of discussions it has elicited. That is what forums are all about. Debate. No one has a monopoly of ideas. And this is not a contest. It will never be.

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Re: REGIONAL DISCUSSIONS:

Post  mbs on Tue Mar 27 2012, 15:19

Ned Starks Head wrote:Well it is good news that oil was found in the NW.
But here is a question for everyone - is this a good thing or a bad thing.
For me the discovery of black gold always seems to attract Sammy really quick (Cylons hilarious video if very close to the truth). Is it not preferable that KE controls all the routes for the oil out of SS and UG or is it preferable for us to have our own? Something to ponder.....

Also on another note the talk for subs for the KN - sorry to say this but this is not a realistic idea - Kenya doesn't have an offensive military doctrine. Its aim has always been to protect the country not to instigate conflict. A sub is in every which way an offensive weapon. It is the only combat system I can think of that doesn't add to the defensive capability of a country- with the caveat that we are not including nuke subs - where the defence lies in the deterrence its offensive capability posses.

Money would be better spent on upgrading the green water capabilities of the arm since most conflicts in this area are primarily littoral in nature.

This is what i dont understand about our ' Defensive Doctrine ', Good defence is good offense. The last 20 yrs when our economy was King in the Region, we could have bled any potential advesary. If we buy a 'Toyota Gun' they buy a 'Nissan Gun'. If only we acquired a 'BMW' Gun then we wouldnt be having an Arms Race today which is twice as Expensive. If we get the vessels then TZ will get them as well ! If we are not careful, we might end up as South Africa, who stagnated. Our Economy will be Hostage to everyone else if they percieve that we are not willing to take the Fight to them wherever they might be. This is the reason why I think we dont have enough Dedicated Airlift Capability to quell a coup in DRC for example, but enough Mobile Transport to do the same in Somalia

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Re: REGIONAL DISCUSSIONS:

Post  mbs on Tue Mar 27 2012, 15:41

ole Nkarei wrote:
tempest wrote:
ole Nkarei wrote:These three questions should make every Kenyan deeply worried about today’s announcement and Sammy’s response to it.

I somehow suspect the US is already in on this? which companies were/are prospecting for the oil. I believe 35 x upgraded F-15s don't come without a lot of American trust and "friendship" ... ... I could be wrong.

Actually I meant ''Johnny'' and not 'Sammy'. It has been a pretty tough 4 months, and I am kinda wearing out.
But, yes Sammy has been on this, making more demands than we can / should give him - and making eyes at the neighbouring girl when we balk kidogo. It makes every sense to stage diplomatically and commercially from Nairobi where it is expected the Petrodollar Industry will converge along the entire eastern seaboard from Puntland to Ruvuma.

Johnny rug's been pulled from under him, a headless chicken trying to remain relevant in a situation where he doesnt fit in anymore. Sammy & China calls the shots in the world now and France has more military clout militarily in the Grander Region. Situation is not about acquring cheap Oil but acquring it at all. Question is this, with the Economy shifting to the East ( Manufacturing Industries ), Asia will buy majority of the Oil from Africa. Johnny wont have Industries to generate wealth as before. Oil will be very expensive for him and govts of the day will have to make deals with whoever is controlling the Oil.

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Re: REGIONAL DISCUSSIONS:

Post  Sierra Kilo on Tue Mar 27 2012, 17:20

mbs wrote:This is what i dont understand about our ' Defensive Doctrine ', Good defence is good offense. The last 20 yrs when our economy was King in the Region, we could have bled any potential advesary. If we buy a 'Toyota Gun' they buy a 'Nissan Gun'. If only we acquired a 'BMW' Gun then we wouldnt be having an Arms Race today which is twice as Expensive. If we get the vessels then TZ will get them as well ! If we are not careful, we might end up as South Africa, who stagnated. Our Economy will be Hostage to everyone else if they percieve that we are not willing to take the Fight to them wherever they might be. This is the reason why I think we dont have enough Dedicated Airlift Capability to quell a coup in DRC for example, but enough Mobile Transport to do the same in Somalia

The great leap forward, is what you mean. I totally agree with you there @mbs, the time for sibling rivalry is over and .ke needs to recover its lost glory. We should now be thinking and strategising of how to do catch up with the likes of South Korea and Singapore. This should be accelerated now with the hydrocarbon find. No nation is ever taken seriously if it only has defensive capability because it is never known it is up to what extent. The next phase of action will be in the waters of the indian ocean and the current fleet of gun boats are a far cry of what is required of them. Troops Airlift capacity is also dire and the suggested CASA C-295 would just be enough lift lunch never Armor. The game has changed and the field expanded!!

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Re: REGIONAL DISCUSSIONS:

Post  Mbaine on Tue Mar 27 2012, 17:46

Sierra Kilo wrote:
mbs wrote:This is what i dont understand about our ' Defensive Doctrine ', Good defence is good offense. The last 20 yrs when our economy was King in the Region, we could have bled any potential advesary. If we buy a 'Toyota Gun' they buy a 'Nissan Gun'. If only we acquired a 'BMW' Gun then we wouldnt be having an Arms Race today which is twice as Expensive. If we get the vessels then TZ will get them as well ! If we are not careful, we might end up as South Africa, who stagnated. Our Economy will be Hostage to everyone else if they percieve that we are not willing to take the Fight to them wherever they might be. This is the reason why I think we dont have enough Dedicated Airlift Capability to quell a coup in DRC for example, but enough Mobile Transport to do the same in Somalia

The great leap forward, is what you mean. I totally agree with you there @mbs, the time for sibling rivalry is over and .ke needs to recover its lost glory. We should now be thinking and strategising of how to do catch up with the likes of South Korea and Singapore. This should be accelerated now with the hydrocarbon find. No nation is ever taken seriously if it only has defensive capability because it is never known it is up to what extent. The next phase of action will be in the waters of the indian ocean and the current fleet of gun boats are a far cry of what is required of them. Troops Airlift capacity is also dire and the suggested CASA C-295 would just be enough lift lunch never Armor. The game has changed and the field expanded!!

But with the nature of armed conflict moving from pitched battles where armies slug it out to a more fluid guerrilla /SF type, would KDF require the kind of heavy lift capacity needed to airlift armour?

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Re: REGIONAL DISCUSSIONS:

Post  Risasi on Tue Mar 27 2012, 19:39

Loosen up mjeshi take easy .take a break or something…...

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Re: REGIONAL DISCUSSIONS:

Post  Sierra Kilo on Tue Mar 27 2012, 20:40

AzKahia wrote:But with the nature of armed conflict moving from pitched battles where armies slug it out to a more fluid guerrilla /SF type, would KDF require the kind of heavy lift capacity needed to airlift armour?

We can never assume that the OLN theatre represents the true measure of all the analogies to be preconceived. If our borders are not fully mapped and demarcated and the assumptions on what lies underneath them we shall definitely be inviting the vultures to feast on us. The ability to preposition both men and armor in far flung areas within the shortest time possible is something that is lacking. Someone mentioned in this blog that .ke had a chinook CH-47 which i doubt was correct but if it were would have been a good start.

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Re: REGIONAL DISCUSSIONS:

Post  Guest on Tue Mar 27 2012, 21:05

Sierra Kilo wrote:
AzKahia wrote:But with the nature of armed conflict moving from pitched battles where armies slug it out to a more fluid guerrilla /SF type, would KDF require the kind of heavy lift capacity needed to airlift armour?

We can never assume that the OLN theatre represents the true measure of all the analogies to be preconceived. If our borders are not fully mapped and demarcated and the assumptions on what lies underneath them we shall definitely be inviting the vultures to feast on us. The ability to preposition both men and armor in far flung areas within the shortest time possible is something that is lacking. Someone mentioned in this blog that .ke had a chinook CH-47 which i doubt was correct but if it were would have been a good start.

Within the realities that are opening, certainly a hell of a lot needs and must be done on all those areas you indicated SK/ mbs/rwigi. But realistically we must take firm ''baby'' steps, in increasing circles, deliberately and forcefully. Our needs are truly great, as indeed are the risks of failure / national implosion. Don't for one moment assume the timing for this hydrocarbon announcement maneno was hip-shot, unplanned - hell, it has never been a secret that this entire region swims on one big hydrocarbon lake - the Lake Victoria is bigger under it than above it! It is the reason this region has been so flux this long, not at war and neither at peace. A open acknowledge of Oil in Kenya is a gauntlet that is thrown down, an open declaration of our intentions to cut loose and ride our destiny. We have now opened a great risks game here, so much could go horribly wrong, have no doubts about that. We must therefore be extremely astute on how we plan muscling up our Armed offensive / defensive forces - we must not get too greedy and must throw the hyenas a couple of bones too. If we get too obtuse, they will shut us down, make no mistake about this!! We must show commonality of interests with either Sammy or Johnny, as we move along. So, how about we go about identifying what we must absolutely do, in what areas and how - such as getting Juba and Dedo pacified and enjoined to LAMU, getting a fully integrated LAPSSET running in the shortest period, keep the Sudanese from tearing each other apart. Let Johnny run around in Puntland for a while - eventually if we are intelligent, even Puntland will co-join with Kenyana . And as we get collectively stronger and more cohesive, we can squeeze incrementally and, you know.... Bible says ''be as sly as the serpents, ye chosen''.

I tell you, SK, an overt armed KDF intervention in Kinshasa will bring in the Belgians and the French faster than you can blink - with the risks of aggravatingly unraveling Kenyana. There is a better way of stabilizing Kabila other than seeding Kenyan paratroopers all over Kinshasa - i.e Kenya Catholic-church-led interventions throungh DRC Catholic Church and Civil Society supported groupings after the recent elections in DRC have arrested a general decline into anarchy that we all feared.

What says you, mate?


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Re: REGIONAL DISCUSSIONS:

Post  mekatilili on Tue Mar 27 2012, 21:10

mJESHI mMOJA wrote:@ rwigi & mekatilili tuhesimiane such kind of nonsense I will not take .ok? you fellows are less the 60post old in the forum, would appreciate if you would revise how the site came to be, which I believe is what attracted you in the first place..
mekatilili wrote:
mJESHI mMOJA wrote: Military air space gentlemen ..Geo-politic affairs should be directed to the current affairs page..tafadhalini
The vibrancy of this page and freedom to discuss all issues affecting our economy here is part of the reason this thread remains the most interesting and and the forum continues to grow. I think we should be free to discuss these issues here as they impact our military and defense organization. Any attempt to curtail that is a put off.


rwigi wrote:
mJESHI mMOJA wrote: Military air space gentlemen ..Geo-politic affairs should be directed to the current affairs page..tafadhalini


Not very easy to differentiate the two. In my eyes the oil find and the Ke military are joined in the hip. I posted the image of the Ngamia site there because I found it after I had already posted the earlier one on the news about oil being found in Turkana. I believe if they were together it would not have looked misplaced.

On the other hand, I believe self regulation is the best. We all know(been here for a few months) that this is Ke Mil page/site and so I do my best to keep it that. Feeling as if someone is on the look out to point out where you have gone wrong is counterproductive.

Reminds me of high school....

Misplaced agression! I suggest you chow down on your smug sense of self importance as it seems you are itching for a fight. The nonsense & hogwash is your response so find something else to police.

Apologies to everyone else for my post and I look forward to reading your responses to the real issues at hand. Regards.

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Grace versus impertinence

Post  Guest on Tue Mar 27 2012, 21:17

Come on fellas, there is no value to this sort of intemperate exchange between us. Hell, even the Crane showed greater grace at his worst times, guys!! Your individual points, whichever they are, have been effectively rammed down our crows now. No need to continue in this vein, I dare say. Chill out - self regulation will be helpful to us all silent .

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Re: REGIONAL DISCUSSIONS:

Post  countersniper on Tue Mar 27 2012, 21:43

just wondering why the great fuss about johnny..and yet the company discovering the oil for us seems tobe johnnys?.
come to think of it how come i have not seen anything about this great discovery in the major western press?not even a mention except from Al-Jazeera?
are they so shell shocked to the point they don't know how to respond?
also remember what the great johnny basher Mugabe did when a major diamond discovery was made in his country?
the guy sent two battalions of his army to take over the area and supervise the mining.
with Chinese help.
no western company has been allowed anywhere near. and nobody even knows the values of diamonds mined so far...they are finding there way into the marker through south east ASIA.



Last edited by countersniper on Tue Mar 27 2012, 21:49; edited 1 time in total

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Re: REGIONAL DISCUSSIONS:

Post  cylon on Tue Mar 27 2012, 21:44

Analyst wrote:
cylon wrote:Im surprised the analyst isnt here commenting but i bet he's watching

Cyclon.....i was pretty sure you would poke me if not Spartan....heheh!!

But i will certainly comment on the issue....an my take is quite subtle.

Oil Discovery in Kenya and the Military Capacity Angle.

'We must further build our armies to greater capability. Oil remains a panacea of subversion, ethnic and political conflict, besides a horde of problems particularly militancy.

With Kenya's geopolitical largese, huge economy, a great army, and a hub for peace and conflict resolution....the ethno-economic instability on Turkana and neighboring areas will be a thorn in the flesh.

Cattle rustling, a major problem might be used by either Sam or John,or even Uganda, to stymie the building of oil rigs and any activity that will consummate the drilling and transport of the crude to Mombasa.

Intelligence shows that the oil deposits in Kenya might be large than that found in Uganda, besides its similar to Libyan oil, which is of very high quality.

Kenya has the resources and infrastructure to pipe and refine the crude the moment the first barrel is brought to the surface, meaning we will beat anyone in the region to realize economic gains of the oil.

Kenya's political weakness must be preempted quickly and have a democracy model like Ghana's if at all we need to achieve any economic gains.

Sammy and Johnny are now more than worried for many good reasons of their own and if China offers better concessions, we might see plenty of renewed cattle rustling and even ethnic conflicts in Rift and Northern areas of Kenya.

Literary, our intelligence gathering and defense should be very ready for eventualities since oil is such a bloody curse if not protected.....

Your usually the first whistle blower about something big, you're massive paragraphs of analysis is always greatly appreciated

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Re: REGIONAL DISCUSSIONS:

Post  countersniper on Tue Mar 27 2012, 21:54

cylon wrote:
Analyst wrote:
cylon wrote:Im surprised the analyst isnt here commenting but i bet he's watching

Cyclon.....i was pretty sure you would poke me if not Spartan....heheh!!

But i will certainly comment on the issue....an my take is quite subtle.

Oil Discovery in Kenya and the Military Capacity Angle.

'We must further build our armies to greater capability. Oil remains a panacea of subversion, ethnic and political conflict, besides a horde of problems particularly militancy.

With Kenya's geopolitical largese, huge economy, a great army, and a hub for peace and conflict resolution....the ethno-economic instability on Turkana and neighboring areas will be a thorn in the flesh.


Cattle rustling, a major problem might be used by either Sam or John,or even Uganda, to stymie the building of oil rigs and any activity that will consummate the drilling and transport of the crude to Mombasa.

Intelligence shows that the oil deposits in Kenya might be large than that found in Uganda, besides its similar to Libyan oil, which is of very high quality.

Kenya has the resources and infrastructure to pipe and refine the crude the moment the first barrel is brought to the surface, meaning we will beat anyone in the region to realize economic gains of the oil.

Kenya's political weakness must be preempted quickly and have a democracy model like Ghana's if at all we need to achieve any economic gains.

Sammy and Johnny are now more than worried for many good reasons of their own and if China offers better concessions, we might see plenty of renewed cattle rustling and even ethnic conflicts in Rift and Northern areas of Kenya.

Literary, our intelligence gathering and defense should be very ready for eventualities since oil is such a bloody curse if not protected.....

Your usually the first whistle blower about something big, you're massive paragraphs of analysis is always greatly appreciated




That is why i was curious to find out the status the kacheliba military outpost which is nearest to this oil find.
have used Google sate lights maps and did not trace anything.

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Re: REGIONAL DISCUSSIONS:

Post  cylon on Tue Mar 27 2012, 21:58

Spartan wrote:
The Blue wrote:
livefire wrote:For anyone with know how on the oil manenos. how does an oil well in excess of 20m i.e (65ft) in depth translate in possible oil reserves in barrels assuming mapping gives a positive find. You can case ua explanation on any other oil wells found else where. #pardon me it aint militaristic.
EAC has always vowed to stand by SS, how will these play out? @Spartan, was the alleged military mobilisation in Uganda motivated by this unfolding events in the 'sudans'? Ofcourse i dont expect an affirmative answer.

You can have oil wells that are quite shallow. An example is the canadian oil sands that are at the surface or slightly sub-surface. For the Ngamia 1 well, there was 20M of oil pay at depths beyond 880M. this alone is not enough to map out the extents of the field. However, the same blok 10BB has been explored before by Shell (Loperot-1 well was drilled in the southern portion of the block in the Lodwar South sub-basin. The well found a total of 13 m net pay in thin, shallow landstone layers of the Auwerwer formation)and the well they drilled some time ago (Loperot-1)hit oil of 29API density. this plus seismic surveys already cariied out on the block may give an indication of size of reserve.

Welcome aboard, The Blue. I almost laughed on reading that Energy minister Kiraitu Murungi said that Tullow told him the reserves are bigger than Uganda's. They wouldn't know at this point having sunk just one well. But that's not to say that Kenya can't discover bigger reserves than those in Uganda, it takes time for the company to know. They have to drill at different locations and find out whether the fields are interconnected, then using the figures of the meters of oil pay they can estimate the volumes. Having established the reserve volumes, they test the flow rate and then tell you how much is recoverable (improved technology is now taking care of this). But 20 meters of oil pay is a very good indicator of commercial quantities.


The Minister Of Energy is actually correct Tullow used 3-D seismic Imaging to map out the underground caverns once they had the data they could now drill in those prime locations to locate the oil there are still a few locations they want to try out to confirm the finds. I mean this isnt new back in the Nyayo era moi got the same news and he decided to keep it a secret because he knew the implications it would bring so he waited.

http://sepwww.stanford.edu/sep/biondo/3DSI_frame.html

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Re: REGIONAL DISCUSSIONS:

Post  cylon on Tue Mar 27 2012, 22:02

countersniper wrote:
cylon wrote:
Analyst wrote:
cylon wrote:Im surprised the analyst isnt here commenting but i bet he's watching

Cyclon.....i was pretty sure you would poke me if not Spartan....heheh!!

But i will certainly comment on the issue....an my take is quite subtle.

Oil Discovery in Kenya and the Military Capacity Angle.

'We must further build our armies to greater capability. Oil remains a panacea of subversion, ethnic and political conflict, besides a horde of problems particularly militancy.

With Kenya's geopolitical largese, huge economy, a great army, and a hub for peace and conflict resolution....the ethno-economic instability on Turkana and neighboring areas will be a thorn in the flesh.


Cattle rustling, a major problem might be used by either Sam or John,or even Uganda, to stymie the building of oil rigs and any activity that will consummate the drilling and transport of the crude to Mombasa.

Intelligence shows that the oil deposits in Kenya might be large than that found in Uganda, besides its similar to Libyan oil, which is of very high quality.

Kenya has the resources and infrastructure to pipe and refine the crude the moment the first barrel is brought to the surface, meaning we will beat anyone in the region to realize economic gains of the oil.

Kenya's political weakness must be preempted quickly and have a democracy model like Ghana's if at all we need to achieve any economic gains.

Sammy and Johnny are now more than worried for many good reasons of their own and if China offers better concessions, we might see plenty of renewed cattle rustling and even ethnic conflicts in Rift and Northern areas of Kenya.

Literary, our intelligence gathering and defense should be very ready for eventualities since oil is such a bloody curse if not protected.....

Your usually the first whistle blower about something big, you're massive paragraphs of analysis is always greatly appreciated




That is why i was curious to find out the status the kacheliba military outpost which is nearest to this oil find.
have used Google sate lights maps and did not trace anything.

Locate Closet landmark, Dirt Road, Camp Found

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Re: REGIONAL DISCUSSIONS:

Post  Ned Starks Head on Tue Mar 27 2012, 22:02

mbs wrote:
Ned Starks Head wrote:Well it is good news that oil was found in the NW.
But here is a question for everyone - is this a good thing or a bad thing.
For me the discovery of black gold always seems to attract Sammy really quick (Cylons hilarious video if very close to the truth). Is it not preferable that KE controls all the routes for the oil out of SS and UG or is it preferable for us to have our own? Something to ponder.....

Also on another note the talk for subs for the KN - sorry to say this but this is not a realistic idea - Kenya doesn't have an offensive military doctrine. Its aim has always been to protect the country not to instigate conflict. A sub is in every which way an offensive weapon. It is the only combat system I can think of that doesn't add to the defensive capability of a country- with the caveat that we are not including nuke subs - where the defence lies in the deterrence its offensive capability posses.

Money would be better spent on upgrading the green water capabilities of the arm since most conflicts in this area are primarily littoral in nature.

This is what i dont understand about our ' Defensive Doctrine ', Good defence is good offense. The last 20 yrs when our economy was King in the Region, we could have bled any potential advesary. If we buy a 'Toyota Gun' they buy a 'Nissan Gun'. If only we acquired a 'BMW' Gun then we wouldnt be having an Arms Race today which is twice as Expensive. If we get the vessels then TZ will get them as well ! If we are not careful, we might end up as South Africa, who stagnated. Our Economy will be Hostage to everyone else if they percieve that we are not willing to take the Fight to them wherever they might be. This is the reason why I think we dont have enough Dedicated Airlift Capability to quell a coup in DRC for example, but enough Mobile Transport to do the same in Somalia

No I disagree good offence is not good defense - that is only when you are in a state of war.
The key is not to be in a state of war at all unless you can guarantee victory - wars are just too bloody expensive they would drain our nascent aspirations.

Is an eeeff-15 an offensive weopon - yes for sure, is it it a defensive weapon - for sure it is. The reach and capabilities of the bird mean that any hungry vulture will think twice before getting preemptive on the country.
A sub on the other hand doesn't posses any such dual role use. It is a loud and noisy signal that we are walking down the neighborhood looking for trouble. It has zero deterrence value in our context. Think about it who are you going to deny sea access to with a sub. TZ? I doubt it. Somalia? What are you gonna sink a skiff? Bat an eyelid at a foreign flagged tanker and dude fooget about it - Sammy will be breaking down the door to teach a really harsh lesson.
Nope we have a a far better ship the biggest aircraft carrier in the world - the country of Kenya itself.
Nature has blessed the SS and UG with oil (and maybe us we will find out) but they have given us something far more important...access to the sea. Protect this and extend a defensive umbrella over SS and Lower juba and you have accomplished far more that a 100 subs could.

So we are pretty much agreeing in principle it is just the execution we differ on. I think deterrence is our key i.e. talk softly and carry a big stick.

Sorry for the long winded post....

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Re: REGIONAL DISCUSSIONS:

Post  Sierra Kilo on Tue Mar 27 2012, 22:11

ole Nkarei wrote: We must show commonality of interests with either Sammy or Johnny, as we move along. So, how about we go about identifying what we must absolutely do, in what areas and how - such as getting Juba and Dedo pacified and enjoined to LAMU, getting a fully integrated LAPSSET running in the shortest period, keep the Sudanese from tearing each other apart. Let Johnny run around in Puntland for a while - eventually if we are intelligent, even Puntland will co-join with Kenyana . And as we get collectively stronger and more cohesive, we can squeeze incrementally and, you know.... Bible says ''be as sly as the serpents, ye chosen''.

I tell you, SK, an overt armed KDF intervention in Kinshasa will bring in the Belgians and the French faster than you can blink - with the risks of aggravatingly unraveling Kenyana. There is a better way of stabilizing Kabila other than seeding Kenyan paratroopers all over Kinshasa - i.e Kenya Catholic-church-led interventions throungh DRC Catholic Church and Civil Society supported groupings after the recent elections in DRC have arrested a general decline into anarchy that we all feared.

What says you, mate?


You couldn't have said it better @ ON, obviously implementing V-2030 to be realised by 2020 or earlier and having the hydrocarbons as the catalyst would be the path to follow. Looking at Angola, they not only have managed to silence the so called human rights activists but also now have even the UN kneeling before them with begging bowls. Its a super game they've played them johnny & co 'rhyme with them' maybe. should we be taking notes??

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Re: REGIONAL DISCUSSIONS:

Post  countersniper on Tue Mar 27 2012, 22:23

sk
spot on
Angolans are so crafty that they play john,sam,samson,schmimdt,huan huo ,nakazuki,chongchong li around like babies.
because they have loads of money, they tend to agree any price any of those fellows ask for .
i have a friend who recently started exporting used cars to Angola he says angolans have so much money that they pay up to three times the normal price for a used four by four no questions or haggling about.
The guy has so far sent in five BMW X 6 and he is these days always smiling every day to the bank.

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Re: REGIONAL DISCUSSIONS:

Post  Guest on Tue Mar 27 2012, 22:37

Ned Starks Head wrote:

No I disagree good offence is not good defense - that is only when you are in a state of war.
The key is not to be in a state of war at all unless you can guarantee victory - wars are just too bloody expensive they would drain our nascent aspirations.

Is an eeeff-15 an offensive weopon - yes for sure, is it it a defensive weapon - for sure it is. The reach and capabilities of the bird mean that any hungry vulture will think twice before getting preemptive on the country.
A sub on the other hand doesn't posses any such dual role use. It is a loud and noisy signal that we are walking down the neighborhood looking for trouble. It has zero deterrence value in our context. Think about it who are you going to deny sea access to with a sub. TZ? I doubt it. Somalia? What are you gonna sink a skiff? Bat an eyelid at a foreign flagged tanker and dude fooget about it - Sammy will be breaking down the door to teach a really harsh lesson.
Nope we have a a far better ship the biggest aircraft carrier in the world - the country of Kenya itself.
Nature has blessed the SS and UG with oil (and maybe us we will find out) but they have given us something far more important...access to the sea. Protect this and extend a defensive umbrella over SS and Lower juba and you have accomplished far more that a 100 subs could.

So we are pretty much agreeing in principle it is just the execution we differ on. I think deterrence is our key i.e. talk softly and carry a big stick.

Sorry for the long winded post....
@Ned -Absolutely top notch anaylsis, Ned, cannot improve on it. Let's be kidogo inward-looking concentrating on specifics like you have mentioned - get those economic corridors running and safed by force-of-arms, extend an credible Military and Diplomatic Shield over GoSS, drive the resolution of outstanding manenos internally plaguing many of Nations in Kenyana (pacify Somalia even if by balkanising it temporarily, Ethiopia vs Eritrea, Uganda and internal dissidents, DRC Hutu/Tutsi manenos, Burundian connondrum, etc), and let the hyenas eat kidogo where it matters least to us. Sly like the serpent! But Damn, these Kenyans make a Kenyan boy's heart swell!!

@Countersniper - we really don't give on damn who helps us find the Hydrocarbons. That is all they have done thus far. Now, how much of this black gold must we surrender to them for helping us find it?

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Re: REGIONAL DISCUSSIONS:

Post  countersniper on Tue Mar 27 2012, 22:48

is is partly why we are moving towards setting regional counter terrorism centre here in Kenya,?

http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/news/-/2558/1372800/-/mxv40nz/-/index.html

i was aware johnny was pushing for Uganda to be the undisputed head boy in the region..until the brilliant execution of operation linda inchi...and now the old man publicly comes out and says we have have oil.
it is almost getting giddy.there are many reset buttons being pressed very hard in some western capitals furiously.
the old man has out foxed them for now.

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Re: REGIONAL DISCUSSIONS:

Post  cylon on Tue Mar 27 2012, 22:56

I guess this is why Gok made the announcement of the oil find to bring in the investors as i said. The Oldman is creating bigger strides east

[youtube][/youtube]

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seems like minister made 840 million..selling oil find area block.

Post  countersniper on Tue Mar 27 2012, 23:09

The old wheeler dealer networks in Kenya already struck
http://www.nation.co.ke/News/Minister+s+firm+sold+oil+block+for+Sh800m+/-/1056/1375036/-/6b4bpbz/-/index.html


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Re: REGIONAL DISCUSSIONS:

Post  Kobooz on Tue Mar 27 2012, 23:26

ole Nkarei wrote:
Ned Starks Head wrote:

No I disagree good offence is not good defense - that is only when you are in a state of war.
The key is not to be in a state of war at all unless you can guarantee victory - wars are just too bloody expensive they would drain our nascent aspirations.

Is an eeeff-15 an offensive weopon - yes for sure, is it it a defensive weapon - for sure it is. The reach and capabilities of the bird mean that any hungry vulture will think twice before getting preemptive on the country.
A sub on the other hand doesn't posses any such dual role use. It is a loud and noisy signal that we are walking down the neighborhood looking for trouble. It has zero deterrence value in our context. Think about it who are you going to deny sea access to with a sub. TZ? I doubt it. Somalia? What are you gonna sink a skiff? Bat an eyelid at a foreign flagged tanker and dude fooget about it - Sammy will be breaking down the door to teach a really harsh lesson.
Nope we have a a far better ship the biggest aircraft carrier in the world - the country of Kenya itself.
Nature has blessed the SS and UG with oil (and maybe us we will find out) but they have given us something far more important...access to the sea. Protect this and extend a defensive umbrella over SS and Lower juba and you have accomplished far more that a 100 subs could.

So we are pretty much agreeing in principle it is just the execution we differ on. I think deterrence is our key i.e. talk softly and carry a big stick.

Sorry for the long winded post....
@Ned -Absolutely top notch anaylsis, Ned, cannot improve on it. Let's be kidogo inward-looking concentrating on specifics like you have mentioned - get those economic corridors running and safed by force-of-arms, extend an credible Military and Diplomatic Shield over GoSS, drive the resolution of outstanding manenos internally plaguing many of Nations in Kenyana (pacify Somalia even if by balkanising it temporarily, Ethiopia vs Eritrea, Uganda and internal dissidents, DRC Hutu/Tutsi manenos, Burundian connondrum, etc), and let the hyenas eat kidogo where it matters least to us. Sly like the serpent! But Damn, these Kenyans make a Kenyan boy's heart swell!!

@Countersniper - we really don't give on damn who helps us find the Hydrocarbons. That is all they have done thus far. Now, how much of this black gold must we surrender to them for helping us find it?

The way I see it. The entire kenyana must start thinking strategically. for example, why should we have oil refineries scattered in kenya and uganda? what if we develop joint regional infrastructure in the model of lappset. I mean joint railway network, power supply etc. The proposed upgrading of kenyan AP to become a regional trainer for anti-terror is just one of those brilliant ideas, land has been allocated and sammy johnny are interested to fund. Nat Defense College Karen, de-mining school Emba etc not only confirms Kenya's leadership role in the region but also brings our militaries together. If we pool together it means more strength na mambo kama hayo. This way the vultures will not have any one specific prey, the reason jungle king the lion fails to attack zebras is bcoz they look so much alike when in a herd and in nature he can only zero in on one target, so even though they are slow he gets puzzled and gives up. With the black gold discoveries in Turkana, I would say that somehow, somewhat we have to let sammy and johnny have a stake. This might work for our good or doom depending on how strategically we think and plan. Good advise from our Ugandan brothers earlier on. So any country making progress in kenyana shld send us celebrating, it is now not about who is about to overtake who but rather how well are we progressing as a region. Imagine the day we don't have to think of refugees? Kenya with her big economy is still getting help through employment and investment opportunities created by countries re-emerging e.g Rwanda, Uganda, S. Sudan etc. On the other hand Kenya is boosting regional economies by being the most outward looking country through regional investment and spreading innovation. Did you knows that we (.Ke) are the biggest investors in Rwanda? could be s. sudan too! - food for thought

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Re: REGIONAL DISCUSSIONS:

Post  countersniper on Tue Mar 27 2012, 23:52

KABOOZ
said partly
" On the other hand Kenya is boosting regional economies by being the most outward looking country through regional investment and spreading innovation. Did you knows that we (.Ke) are the biggest investors in Rwanda? could be s. sudan too! - food for thought"

this why tall thin has a soft spot for Kenya.
Kenyans helped set up Rwanda IT superstructures and even tall thin man at one employed our very own SHEM Ochuodo as his PS for IT development.
the other day Rwanda was planning to recruit thousands of Kenyan teachers.
many Ugandan companies are using and employing Kenyans in top management positions because good work ethics and trust while GOSS needs Kenya kufa na kupona
TZ is another story.

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