REGIONAL DISCUSSIONS:

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Re: REGIONAL DISCUSSIONS:

Post  Guest on Sun Jul 29 2012, 20:40

Spartan wrote:
ole Nkarei wrote:http://www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/UPDF+loses+key+Somalia+AU+jobs+to+Kenyan+officers/-/688334/1465212/-/gnuvmez/-/index.html

All Clarifications about these matters is readily available in Kampala and Kenya - heck, there are substantive Communications Offices, with Names and Ranks, in both KDF and UPDF tasked with factually and correctly disseminating such sensitive information.

Kasasira must be aware of his obligation to his readership to factually validate his Stories from these Offices; amorphously designated ''sources'' cannot do at all.

@Spartan, @ Flying Crane, would you be magnanimous enough to undertake with his education freely? There is an email link to the story. afro
Btw - UPDF jump-off into Ituri imminent, no?

Sensational headline but the story is a load of fible-fable. What did he expect, Uganda to retain all offices when new countries are brought on board?

UPDF in Ituri? No way. Managing two theatres (Somalia and C.A.R-South Sudan) is difficult enough. But we can exert influence, and that's why the second Clinton is coming here in as many weeks.

It is alright if you are not able to share at this time. Tis not what is evident from this far though. Kabila's better trained / equipped 391Btn has ''unprocedurally'' deployed in Ituri and North Kivu. M23 / RDF making fools of other Kabila Forces facing them in North Kivu. Refugee border crossings reaching deluge levels. Neutral Stabilization Force agreed in Addis last week now hobnailed by the ditherings of the Tall One. The Indians in MONUC have no balls to fight anyone despite their huge budget and wide-mandate. Continued inaction against this Tutsi Conspiracy in Easter DRC risks entrenching the enforced Status Quo. EAC is impelled to some forceful intervention. Keen to hear what the beautiful lady tells M7 when she arrives.

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Re: REGIONAL DISCUSSIONS:

Post  countersniper on Sun Jul 29 2012, 23:37

Ugandan press is getting a raw deal.
kdf is bringing more muscle and equipment to the table. so they deserve a little respect.
here is a part from monitor paper intended to belittle kdf success


has also emerged that Kenyans are requesting Uganda and
Burundi to help them in the planned operation to attack Kisimayo, the
headquarters of al-Shabaab, under the Kenya’s sector. Somalia has been
divided into three sectors with Uganda controlling sector one, Kenya
operates within sector two while Burundi was given sector three.



Uganda and Burundi have been attacking al- Shabaab
positions and have moved 40km out of Mogadishu but Kenya is yet to begin
its operations.




rkasasira@ug.nationmedia.com

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Re: REGIONAL DISCUSSIONS:

Post  Spartan on Mon Jul 30 2012, 09:35

The president with the list control of his country, Kabila, addressed the press and showed even how little control he had. Citing not intelligence but "persistent rumours" he said that Uganda may be involved in the fighting. I am very disappointed in this man. UPDF uniforms have UG flags, let them just capture or kill one Ugandan soldier. Then he can call press conferences with facts, otherwise Kabila, as a president he is a joke.

With 20,000 UN forces in the Congo already using resources that could better be put to use elsewhere, Kabila is calling for another 'neutral force'. Of course to be financed by the UN! All because the Congolese forces have no spine for battle. How I wish we had not allowed their full battalion in, next time their forces should not take shelter in Uganda as they consider us hostile.

The M23 is sitting tight at Bunagana and costing us business, and instead of uprooting them Kabila is blaming everyone else.

However, I have one explanation for the Congolese rumuors Kabila is citing. The last time their forces were routed in one sided contests was when RDF and UPDF were routing Mobutu's forces. They have failed to bring themselves to the fact that they are fighting the M23 only, which btw fights well for a lightly armed group. But we should not be very surprised the M23 fight really well, if they were skilled by who the West is saying is behind them.

By pointing the fingure at other countries, Kabila fools the Congolese into thinking it's Rwanda, Ug etc to blame and not their inept, incompetent, cowardly troops. If you asked me, it's a good ploy of maintaining the support of the army and the populace.

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Re: REGIONAL DISCUSSIONS:

Post  Guest on Mon Jul 30 2012, 11:24

Spartan wrote:The president with the list control of his country, Kabila, addressed the press and showed even how little control he had. Citing not intelligence but "persistent rumours" he said that Uganda may be involved in the fighting. I am very disappointed in this man. UPDF uniforms have UG flags, let them just capture or kill one Ugandan soldier. Then he can call press conferences with facts, otherwise Kabila, as a president he is a joke.

With 20,000 UN forces in the Congo already using resources that could better be put to use elsewhere, Kabila is calling for another 'neutral force'. Of course to be financed by the UN! All because the Congolese forces have no spine for battle. How I wish we had not allowed their full battalion in, next time their forces should not take shelter in Uganda as they consider us hostile.

The M23 is sitting tight at Bunagana and costing us business, and instead of uprooting them Kabila is blaming everyone else.

However, I have one explanation for the Congolese rumuors Kabila is citing. The last time their forces were routed in one sided contests was when RDF and UPDF were routing Mobutu's forces. They have failed to bring themselves to the fact that they are fighting the M23 only, which btw fights well for a lightly armed group. But we should not be very surprised the M23 fight really well, if they were skilled by who the West is saying is behind them.

By pointing the fingure at other countries, Kabila fools the Congolese into thinking it's Rwanda, Ug etc to blame and not their inept, incompetent, cowardly troops. If you asked me, it's a good ploy of maintaining the support of the army and the populace.

Agreed to a point witcha, @Spartan. You know we have had two forward ''Observer stations'' (for lack of a politer euphemism) - in South Kivu staging from Bujumbura and North Kivu staging from Ritshuru, for years. Sitreps daily, aggregated much more since March 2013. No indication of recent UPDF egress into Ituru / North Kivu but for the normal and expected recce-in-force probes ran in for obvious reasons. But, has RDF been rehatting as M23 - unquestionably and with undeniable evidence in Kigali and Goma. Is it possible Kabila is trying to internationalized this M23 maneno by roping M7 unfairly into it - Absolutely. The Tall One has pretty much boxed himself with this latest adventure in Eastern DRC, but the anticipated momentum Kabila has been waiting for is dissipating gradually. So, he brings M7 to reinforce his 'foreign aggression by my old protagonist Rwanda and Uganda'' and maybe then the UNSC gets to dramatically alter the Mandate of MONUC to wipe out for him the Rebel Groups in the Eastern DRC which his Army has proven incapable and incompetent to achieve.
It is all clever real-politiks, @Spartan, but it will not fly; unless the EAC/IGAD drops the ball - and I don't see that happening at all!

@Countersniper - a call for assistance is wide-ranging and not restricted to equipment, manpower and logistics, and you know so too. It could be a pooling of Intel and Intel Assets (Sleepers, Sources)which the UGABAG has in plenty from their painstaking efforts over the years. Kismayu is 700Km south of Mogadishu through very hostile bandit-filled territory. Have faith.

@Mogen - Spaghetti is a hell of a lot easier and faster to cook in a field kitchen than Ugali by far. Boil water in a big big vat, some liquid vegetable oil and lump of salt, dunk the spaghetti from measured gunny sacks, turn sporadically, 6 minutes boiling, strain and serve in mountain proportions!! Smile Meat balls (minced meat - convenient) or uncomplicated Beef Stew, easy to pack tinned pineapple tranches - a deadtired Soldier will be in the Norfolk Delamere Terrace (in his head) hunkered down on a plate with these, slouching down on his ground sheet, O!! Very Happy Very Happy

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Re: REGIONAL DISCUSSIONS:

Post  mogen on Mon Jul 30 2012, 13:10

ole Nkarei wrote:

@Mogen - Spaghetti is a hell of a lot easier and faster to cook in a field kitchen than Ugali by far. Boil water in a big big vat, some liquid vegetable oil and lump of salt, dunk the spaghetti from measured gunny sacks, turn sporadically, 6 minutes boiling, strain and serve in mountain proportions!! Smile Meat balls (minced meat - convenient) or uncomplicated Beef Stew, easy to pack tinned pineapple tranches - a deadtired Soldier will be in the Norfolk Delamere Terrace (in his head) hunkered down on a plate with these, slouching down on his ground sheet, O!! Very Happy Very Happy

@ON
The journo is a lazy one who didn't even care to check out the nutritional value of pasta. Bure kabisa.
Pasta is classified as low GI (glycaemic index) food. Like ugali or githeri, pasta takes a while to be digested meaning the energy contained in eaten pasta is availed to the body slowly [i.e. as it is needed]. These kind of foods are therefore good for diabetics, soldiers and anyone who wants to keep fit and energetic. The pasta is good for SNA as well KDF soldiers. Pasta and spaghetti are different from the instant noodles.

Someone please tell that lazy journalist to go do his homework.

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Re: REGIONAL DISCUSSIONS:

Post  mbs on Mon Jul 30 2012, 14:15

Spartan wrote:The president with the list control of his country, Kabila, addressed the press and showed even how little control he had. Citing not intelligence but "persistent rumours" he said that Uganda may be involved in the fighting. I am very disappointed in this man. UPDF uniforms have UG flags, let them just capture or kill one Ugandan soldier. Then he can call press conferences with facts, otherwise Kabila, as a president he is a joke.

With 20,000 UN forces in the Congo already using resources that could better be put to use elsewhere, Kabila is calling for another 'neutral force'. Of course to be financed by the UN! All because the Congolese forces have no spine for battle. How I wish we had not allowed their full battalion in, next time their forces should not take shelter in Uganda as they consider us hostile.

The M23 is sitting tight at Bunagana and costing us business, and instead of uprooting them Kabila is blaming everyone else.

However, I have one explanation for the Congolese rumuors Kabila is citing. The last time their forces were routed in one sided contests was when RDF and UPDF were routing Mobutu's forces. They have failed to bring themselves to the fact that they are fighting the M23 only, which btw fights well for a lightly armed group. But we should not be very surprised the M23 fight really well, if they were skilled by who the West is saying is behind them.

By pointing the fingure at other countries, Kabila fools the Congolese into thinking it's Rwanda, Ug etc to blame and not their inept, incompetent, cowardly troops. If you asked me, it's a good ploy of maintaining the support of the army and the populace.
I think its time we start thinking outside the box. Why not advocate for breaking up of the state like what happened in Yugoslavia ? or USSR ? That way you end up with states that can viably support themselves ? DRC is too big of a country to effectively administer itself centrally from Kinshasa. The military has purposely been weakened so as to not threaten the Govt of the day and there is no way they will ever win any skirmish whether the enemy are supported by the Tall Man or not. By the way, how come all the refugees who are always interviewed are 'swahili' speakers, and the DRC soldiers French/Lingala speakers ? Maybe this is one of the problems. Personally I think DRC is too big to be effectively governed by Kabila, maybe The Tall ONe/Museveni would have been a better choice.

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Re: REGIONAL DISCUSSIONS:

Post  Guest on Mon Jul 30 2012, 14:46

mbs wrote: I think its time we start thinking outside the box. Why not advocate for breaking up of the state like what happened in Yugoslavia ? or USSR ? That way you end up with states that can viably support themselves ? DRC is too big of a country to effectively administer itself centrally from Kinshasa. The military has purposely been weakened so as to not threaten the Govt of the day and there is no way they will ever win any skirmish whether the enemy are supported by the Tall Man or not. By the way, how come all the refugees who are always interviewed are 'swahili' speakers, and the DRC soldiers French/Lingala speakers ? Maybe this is one of the problems. Personally I think DRC is too big to be effectively governed by Kabila, maybe The Tall ONe/Museveni would have been a better choice.

Breaking up the DRC has been an ill-concealed and longstanding Western Strategy since the Kasavubi / Lumumba era, and the main cause and justification for the ceaseless conflict in all parts of the DRC. It has kept the DRC ungovernable and hopelessly fractious.

Questions is - who stands to gain from a fractured DRC, the country with the larges Mineral Wealth in the World? And who has benefited from a fractious weak and ungovernable DRC to-date? Clearly it is not the Congolese indigene, and nor even the wider African Audience.

As Nations in a ''Globalised-Village'' realities inexorably move into relationships grounded on Trade and Economy-linkages (and not ideology and politics of yore), their Geopolitical Definitions move beyond present National boundaries, and hence ''bigger is better''. In this context therefore, a breakup of the DRC might have shortterm (and shortsighted?) results, but would be certainly a retrogressive development.

Now, if the rest of ''Kenyana'' was to effectively gel into a functioning and vibrant Geopolitical Block with Interlinked Economies, Shared Security, World-footprint, etc, (as it is intended and appears to be doing), it would without doubt suck-in the DRC and put paid to all these conflict maneno in quick-time. And ''Kenyana '' needs the DRC as an integral part of it to exploit the mind-boggling potential in Block

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Re: REGIONAL DISCUSSIONS:

Post  Olekoima on Mon Jul 30 2012, 16:24

Some regional issues to ponder:-

http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/news/Zenawis+exit+Why+EAC+should+worry+/-/2558/1465390/-/yyp6k2z/-/index.html

http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/OpEd/comment/Watch+out+for+Somalia+the+regions+next+success+story+/-/434750/1465222/-/5pooyv/-/index.html

http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/news/Why+are+EAC+leaders+quiet+on+DRC/-/2558/1465412/-/gppc90/-/index.html

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Re: REGIONAL DISCUSSIONS:

Post  jasiri on Tue Jul 31 2012, 10:09

http://www.nation.co.ke/News/world/US+and+Turkey+to+accelerate+Syria+transition/-/1068/1467444/-/yurkmkz/-/index.html. If the U.S and the Turks are working together to bring down the Syrian Gov't doesn't this then give Syria a legit reason to launch at least a Scud at Ankaran territory? If the neo-colonialist ottomans respond they could always invoke Iran. This new game of changing leaders at will is scary. What prevents them from exporting this new form of democracy to Kenya come 2013? And why is the united nations security council so quie on this?

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Re: REGIONAL DISCUSSIONS:

Post  mogen on Tue Jul 31 2012, 14:17

ESAT Radio declares “Meles Zenawi has died
Ethiopian Satellite Radio and Television (ESAT) just reported in its tonight news that Ethiopian Prime Minsiter Meles Zenawi has died at 57. The radio cited its sources from the International Crisis Group (ICG) and diplomatic community..... Read more at:
http://www.keydmedia.net/en/news/article/breaking_news_esat_radio_declares_meles_zenawi_has_died/

Can anyone confirm this 'Breaking News' item. If true what implications does it have on Kenyana?

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Hillary Clinton Launches Neo-Colonial Tour of Africa

Post  Olekoima on Wed Aug 01 2012, 17:55

What do you guys think of this article?

http://www.opednews.com/articles/Hillary-Clinton-Launches-N-by-Rick-Rozoff-120731-359.html

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Re: REGIONAL DISCUSSIONS:

Post  mogen on Thu Aug 02 2012, 04:09

Syrian Rebels seek peace with Israel

http://youtu.be/VvexVAFiiWk

What does this mean?

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Re: REGIONAL DISCUSSIONS:

Post  tempest on Thu Aug 02 2012, 08:28

mogen wrote:Syrian Rebels seek peace with Israel

http://youtu.be/VvexVAFiiWk

What does this mean?

They are after Western support ... ... although I believe this might divide the rebels themselves. Also Hezbollah support for Assad could mean, for now, the rebel can try to sell the "peace with Israel" idea.

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Re: REGIONAL DISCUSSIONS:

Post  Risasi on Thu Aug 02 2012, 14:13

tempest wrote:
mogen wrote:Syrian Rebels seek peace with Israel

http://youtu.be/VvexVAFiiWk

What does this mean?

They are after Western support ... ... although I believe this might divide the rebels themselves. Also Hezbollah support for Assad could mean, for now, the rebel can try to sell the "peace with Israel" idea.

A card game I may say. The enemy of my enemy ought to be my friend.

P/S a chemical warning to incoming and invading foriegn armies issued by syria.

I feel Assad intends to go down with a higher casualty than any of the previous Arab spring candidates. he has crossed over to “after all whatever the out come I will still get Prosecuted

in the Hague”

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Re: REGIONAL DISCUSSIONS:

Post  mogen on Fri Aug 03 2012, 04:08

Risasi wrote:
tempest wrote:
mogen wrote:Syrian Rebels seek peace with Israel

http://youtu.be/VvexVAFiiWk

What does this mean?

They are after Western support ... ... although I believe this might divide the rebels themselves. Also Hezbollah support for Assad could mean, for now, the rebel can try to sell the "peace with Israel" idea.

A card game I may say. The enemy of my enemy ought to be my friend.

P/S a chemical warning to incoming and invading foriegn armies issued by syria.

I feel Assad intends to go down with a higher casualty than any of the previous Arab spring candidates. he has crossed over to “after all whatever the out come I will still get Prosecuted

in the Hague”

I hear Obama has signed a doc that authorizes covert action in support of Syrian rebels and Kofi Annan has formally given up his 'mission impossible' in Syria.

A weakened/incapacitated Syrian military is a good thing for Israel in their engagement with/against Iran. Without Syrian SAMs the IDF pilots can fly in and out or thro' the country at will. Russia is reportedly 'assured of maintaining influence' in Syria but how this will work if the rebels eventually become rulers is anyone's guess.

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Obama orders Sheikh Sharif out of Government post TFG!!

Post  Guest on Fri Aug 03 2012, 12:14

So Johnny Carson has ordered in clear language Sheikh Shariff not to run for re-election! And mama is coming to town to further re-state this is not Johnny Carson's rumblings. Really interesting times these are becoming. Sammy's real intentions are becoming increasingly clear, and they are not all geopolitical nor altruistic. Zoomaliya reconstruction and natural resources. And conversely by entrenching a strong and forceful presence in Zoomaliya of both Government and Commercial American entities, this reproduces in into substantial influence over all of Kenyana.

How to positively synergize and use this greed? DRC is flux with old suspicions, Sudan yet unsettled by the acute dishonesty of both leadership, Meles is gradually fading and Ethiopian seething with post-Meles leadership uncertainties, wTZ as usual with a thumb-in-the-mouth (sorry, Olekoima Very Happy ); M7 so seduced by Sammy in more desperation than seducing the Village Belle!! Eeeiish!!

GoK drives for an inclusive process because this has better prospects of a peaceful Kenya-NFD and LAPSSET. This is what informs the Overall Strategy Development for OLN – a clear rear view awareness of Zoomalian History, and candid ever present acceptance that Zoomaliya will forever be Kenya’s very critically co-joined eastern neighbor. Zoomaliya has unraveled over the past fifty years because of just such exclusive-winner-take-all mambo jumbo.

Now, bearing in mind where Sharif sprung from (ICU-2005), and he has been president of TFG this long, it is foolish to expect that sidelining him as a viable prospect. American efforts will only radicalize Sharif further, unless of course GoK should adopt him and ”run” him in direct opposition to the American initiative / plans in a future Zoomaliya. Eeeiish, again by gawd Exclamation Exclamation

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Re: REGIONAL DISCUSSIONS:

Post  mogen on Fri Aug 03 2012, 12:37

ole Nkarei wrote:So Johnny Carson has ordered in clear language Sheikh Shariff not to run for re-election! And mama is coming to town to further re-state this is not Johnny Carson's rumblings. Really interesting times these are becoming. Sammy's real intentions are becoming increasingly clear, and they are not all geopolitical nor altruistic. Zoomaliya reconstruction and natural resources. And conversely by entrenching a strong and forceful presence in Zoomaliya of both Government and Commercial American entities, this reproduces in into substantial influence over all of Kenyana.

How to positively synergize and use this greed? DRC is flux with old suspicions, Sudan yet unsettled by the acute dishonesty of both leadership, Meles is gradually fading and Ethiopian seething with post-Meles leadership uncertainties, wTZ as usual with a thumb-in-the-mouth (sorry, Olekoima Very Happy ); M7 so seduced by Sammy in more desperation than seducing the Village Belle!! Eeeiish!!

GoK drives for an inclusive process because this has better prospects of a peaceful Kenya-NFD and LAPSSET. This is what informs the Overall Strategy Development for OLN – a clear rear view awareness of Zoomalian History, and candid ever present acceptance that Zoomaliya will forever be Kenya’s very critically co-joined eastern neighbor. Zoomaliya has unraveled over the past fifty years because of just such exclusive-winner-take-all mambo jumbo.

Now, bearing in mind where Sharif sprung from (ICU-2005), and he has been president of TFG this long, it is foolish to expect that sidelining him as a viable prospect. American efforts will only radicalize Sharif further, unless of course GoK should adopt him and ”run” him in direct opposition to the American initiative / plans in a future Zoomaliya. Eeeiish, again by gawd Exclamation Exclamation

@ON
This Sammy maneno is no good. Shariff has already declared to his people that he will run for president. He has a history too. How do they expect him to just fade off? At a time like this such a demand is clearly counterproductive. Maybe that is the point. Bure kabisa. Shocked Shocked

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Re: REGIONAL DISCUSSIONS:

Post  Risasi on Fri Aug 03 2012, 19:51

ole Nkarei wrote:So Johnny Carson has ordered in clear language Sheikh Shariff not to run for re-election! And mama is coming to town to further re-state this is not Johnny Carson's rumblings. Really interesting times these are becoming. ................. Eeeiish, again by gawd Exclamation Exclamation

It took forever ..should I say at long last or at wrong rust (kikuyu version) Very Happy

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Re: REGIONAL DISCUSSIONS:

Post  Guest on Fri Aug 03 2012, 20:03

Risasi wrote:
ole Nkarei wrote:So Johnny Carson has ordered in clear language Sheikh Shariff not to run for re-election! And mama is coming to town to further re-state this is not Johnny Carson's rumblings. Really interesting times these are becoming. ................. Eeeiish, again by gawd Exclamation Exclamation

It took forever ..should I say at long last or at wrong rust (kikuyu version) Very Happy

Endless head-aches, bullet man. I am losing my hair, aisee!! But yeah, about time too, at wrong rust. Very Happy Very Happy You are keeping well? The cub fly-boy has been pinging you - reach him.


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Re: REGIONAL DISCUSSIONS:

Post  Guest on Fri Aug 03 2012, 20:24

Now, bearing in mind where Sharif sprung from (ICU-2005), and he has been president of TFG this long, it is foolish to expect that sidelining him as a viable prospect. American efforts will only radicalize Sharif further, unless of course GoK should adopt him and ”run” him in direct opposition to the American initiative / plans in a future Zoomaliya. Eeeiish, again by gawd Exclamation Exclamation [/quote]

I doubt he will want to stand up to Americans......or anyone for that matter(read Gaddafy,Saddam and now Assad). It all sound great for us to seem like we are standing up for our interest, but and the end, the Americans will have the last say on who runs or not. That is why the CIA is vettings all these guys over there and information feed back to policy makers in DC to decide who are "good guys"

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Re: REGIONAL DISCUSSIONS:

Post  Guest on Fri Aug 03 2012, 22:09

Allow me to differ witcha @Make_It_Simple. The parallels you draw are incomparable in all aspects - Libya, Iraqu, Syria and Zoomaliya. I reckon.

The principle imperative in Zoomaliya for all manner of Nations who have any interests in Zoomaliya - Sammy,the Turks, Ethiopia, Kenya, Djibouti, Oman, UAE, everyone, is the stabilization of Zoomaliya without fluffing or messing this opportunity. Hiyo pekee!! Not regime change. Not even democracy. Everyone knows this will result from an all-inclusive political process riding upon the success of the Military Effort - hell, even AS will find their way into the next government after TFG! For Kenya (EAC/Expanded), this is not about sounding great standing up for ourselves against the big bad hyena - stabilizing Zoomaliya is probably Kenya's single-biggest strategic imperative in the short and medium term - without the LAPSSET, our Northern Counties will go the Zoomaliya way in no time. Sammy knows just how vital this Zoomaliya conundrum is to Kenya (to EAC/Expanded). Sammy's Geopolitical Strategic Interest are intrinsically interwoven in Kenya's (in EAC/Expanded's)real strategic imperatives. The difference is in the order of Priorities but not the Priorities themselves. If Kenya (EAC/Expanded) wants Sheikh Shariff hard enough, Sheikh Shariff it will be. And vice versa!!

Oh, the Americans are not having their way on who runs and does not run, but are trying to; so are the rest of ALL of us. And the CIA is not vetting any-damn-body but back-grounding players and situations to give impetus to Policy at DC. Last I checked, Sammy have never chosen who to work with on the basis of being '' the good guys'' or the '' bad guys'' - frequently he works just as well with the ''bad guys'' as with the good.

I doubt he will want to stand up to Americans......or anyone for that matter(read Gaddafy,Saddam and now Assad). It all sound great for us to seem like we are standing up for our interest, but and the end, the Americans will have the last say on who runs or not. That is why the CIA is vettings all these guys over there and information feed back to policy makers in DC to decide who are "good guys"[

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Tanzania and Malawi inch towards War over lake Nyasa's natural gas field.

Post  Guest on Sat Aug 04 2012, 12:59

Malawi and Tanzania have open another potential flash point over Lake Nyasa's Gas fields. Sabre rattling by the wTz. I have checked the colonial boundary mapping agreement between Tanganyika and Nyasaland before their independence which demarcates the lake Nyasa almost wholly in Malawi with a shoreline for both Mozambique and Tanganyika. Sixty years later when it is announced lake Nyasa seats on top of another lake of Natural Gas, (just like the huge Gas Reservoir beneath Lake Kivu with Rwanda, DRC), Tanzania now wants to move the boundary into the middle of the lake - by force!! No previously known contention of ownership. No earlier dispute!!

Spontaneous or contrived? - Lake Nyasa-Malawi/Tz, DRC-Kivu, DRC-Ituri (Mai Mai),Sudan-Heglig, Ethiopa-Ogaden/Ormo, Zoomaliya, Kenya-NFD??

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Re: REGIONAL DISCUSSIONS:

Post  Olekoima on Sat Aug 04 2012, 14:11

ole Nkarei wrote:Malawi and Tanzania have open another potential flash point over Lake Nyasa's Gas fields. Sabre rattling by the wTz. I have checked the colonial boundary mapping agreement between Tanganyika and Nyasaland before their independence which demarcates the lake Nyasa almost wholly in Malawi with a shoreline for both Mozambique and Tanganyika. Sixty years later when it is announced lake Nyasa seats on top of another lake of Natural Gas, (just like the huge Gas Reservoir beneath Lake Kivu with Rwanda, DRC), Tanzania now wants to move the boundary into the middle of the lake - by force!! No previously known contention of ownership. No earlier dispute!!

Spontaneous or contrived? - Lake Nyasa-Malawi/Tz, DRC-Kivu, DRC-Ituri (Mai Mai),Sudan-Heglig, Ethiopa-Ogaden/Ormo, Zoomaliya, Kenya-NFD??

Malawi has a military force of about 25,000 strong. However it seems to lack in equipment. The army appears to own only a single T-55 tank plus a couple of Eland Mk 7s. The airforce lacks combat jets and combat helicopters. This means that in the event of hostilities with TZ, Malawi clearly starts at a disadvantage.

http://www.ippmedia.com/frontend/index.php?l=44364

http://www.maravipost.com/scope/op-ed/1449-candidly-speaking-with-the-weakest-president-malawi-has-ever-hard-we-are-mincemeat-for-the-taifas.html

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Post  Spartan on Sat Aug 04 2012, 15:18

Sudan and South Sudan have agreed to resume oil exports through the North's pipelines, having settled on around 10 dollars a barrel, way below the 36 greens the north wanted when the oil was stopped. Which begs the question - Is it still full speed ahead for the Juba-Lamu pipeline?

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Re: REGIONAL DISCUSSIONS:

Post  Guest on Sat Aug 04 2012, 16:15

Laboring under a UNSC deadline (31st July) and deepening economic social crisis due to the lack of oil revenue, on both Sudans, an ''agreement of sorts'' had to be inked. I am advised that IGAD/EAC pushed kitu hard for this as a stop-gap in order to (a) obviate UNSC intervention /interference (and possibly other busybodies with specific interests in Sudan and EAC/IGAD), (b) to allow for continued engagement through AU/IGAD without the twin weight of internal economic / social pressures in both Sudans, and from the UNSC, (c) to facilitate development of capacity through Lamu and Djibouti - at least 24months to pump oil through these other alternative routes.

Shared Oil-fields by two diametrically opposed Nations (one Arab facing ''North'' and the other East African intrinsically 'African'' is a perpetual point of conflict between them until the oil is depleted.

"Spartan"]Sudan and South Sudan have agreed to resume oil exports through the North's pipelines, having settled on around 10 dollars a barrel, way below the 36 greens the north wanted when the oil was stopped. Which begs the question - Is it still full speed ahead for the Juba-Lamu pipeline?

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Re: REGIONAL DISCUSSIONS:

Post  mogen on Sat Aug 04 2012, 17:41

mogen wrote:
Risasi wrote:
tempest wrote:
mogen wrote:Syrian Rebels seek peace with Israel

http://youtu.be/VvexVAFiiWk

What does this mean?

They are after Western support ... ... although I believe this might divide the rebels themselves. Also Hezbollah support for Assad could mean, for now, the rebel can try to sell the "peace with Israel" idea.

A card game I may say. The enemy of my enemy ought to be my friend.

P/S a chemical warning to incoming and invading foreign armies issued by syria.

I feel Assad intends to go down with a higher casualty than any of the previous Arab spring candidates. he has crossed over to “after all whatever the out come I will still get Prosecuted

in the Hague”

I hear Obama has signed a doc that authorizes covert action in support of Syrian rebels and Kofi Annan has formally given up his 'mission impossible' in Syria.

A weakened/incapacitated Syrian military is a good thing for Israel in their engagement with/against Iran. Without Syrian SAMs the IDF pilots can fly in and out or thro' the country at will. Russia is reportedly 'assured of maintaining influence' in Syria but how this will work if the rebels eventually become rulers is anyone's guess.

STRIKE ON IRAN 'COULD BE JUST WEEKS AWAY'
An Israeli strike against Iran to thwart its suspected efforts to build nuclear weapons, could be months, or possibly even weeks, away, Israel's former military intelligence chief has warned...http://au.news.yahoo.com/world/a/-/world/14458277/strike-on-iran-could-be-just-weeks-away/

Methinks it certainly looks much more likely now.

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Re: REGIONAL DISCUSSIONS:

Post  Risasi on Sun Aug 05 2012, 19:51

mogen wrote:
mogen wrote:
Risasi wrote:
tempest wrote:
mogen wrote:Syrian Rebels seek peace with Israel

http://youtu.be/VvexVAFiiWk

What does this mean?

They are after Western support ... ... although I believe this might divide the rebels themselves. Also Hezbollah support for Assad could mean, for now, the rebel can try to sell the "peace with Israel" idea.

A card game I may say. The enemy of my enemy ought to be my friend.

P/S a chemical warning to incoming and invading foreign armies issued by syria.

I feel Assad intends to go down with a higher casualty than any of the previous Arab spring candidates. he has crossed over to “after all whatever the out come I will still get Prosecuted

in the Hague”

I hear Obama has signed a doc that authorizes covert action in support of Syrian rebels and Kofi Annan has formally given up his 'mission impossible' in Syria.

A weakened/incapacitated Syrian military is a good thing for Israel in their engagement with/against Iran. Without Syrian SAMs the IDF pilots can fly in and out or thro' the country at will. Russia is reportedly 'assured of maintaining influence' in Syria but how this will work if the rebels eventually become rulers is anyone's guess.

STRIKE ON IRAN 'COULD BE JUST WEEKS AWAY'
An Israeli strike against Iran to thwart its suspected efforts to build nuclear weapons, could be months, or possibly even weeks, away, Israel's former military intelligence chief has warned...http://au.news.yahoo.com/world/a/-/world/14458277/strike-on-iran-could-be-just-weeks-away/

Methinks it certainly looks much more likely now.

Most likely cause the Irans were banking on Syria as a launch pad for a counter attack on Israel incase of an attack…

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Re: REGIONAL DISCUSSIONS:

Post  Olekoima on Mon Aug 06 2012, 18:56

ole Nkarei wrote:Malawi and Tanzania have open another potential flash point over Lake Nyasa's Gas fields. Sabre rattling by the wTz. I have checked the colonial boundary mapping agreement between Tanganyika and Nyasaland before their independence which demarcates the lake Nyasa almost wholly in Malawi with a shoreline for both Mozambique and Tanganyika. Sixty years later when it is announced lake Nyasa seats on top of another lake of Natural Gas, (just like the huge Gas Reservoir beneath Lake Kivu with Rwanda, DRC), Tanzania now wants to move the boundary into the middle of the lake - by force!! No previously known contention of ownership. No earlier dispute!!

Spontaneous or contrived? - Lake Nyasa-Malawi/Tz, DRC-Kivu, DRC-Ituri (Mai Mai),Sudan-Heglig, Ethiopa-Ogaden/Ormo, Zoomaliya, Kenya-NFD??

Movement of troops by both sides? I hope it does not get worse than this:-

http://thecitizen.co.tz/component/content/article/37-tanzania-top-news-story/24635-experts-politicians-say-no-to-war-with-malawi.html

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Re: REGIONAL DISCUSSIONS:

Post  Olekoima on Mon Aug 06 2012, 19:00

Chest thumping?

http://www.nyasatimes.com/malawi/2012/08/06/lake-malawinyasa-row-time-to-show-strong-leadership/

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Re: REGIONAL DISCUSSIONS:

Post  Spartan on Tue Aug 07 2012, 12:17

Olekoima wrote:Chest thumping?

http://www.nyasatimes.com/malawi/2012/08/06/lake-malawinyasa-row-time-to-show-strong-leadership/

That border appears to place the lake entirely in Malawi, a poor small country. But if Tz wants to shed its reputation as peaceful non-interfering country, there is no better opportunity than this.

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